Modest Improvement in World Cotton Supply

WASHINGTON - May 9/08 - SNS -- Higher than initially thought cotton production in China has resulted in a larger available supply gfor the current season, according to the latest supply and demand forecasts from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

China's production is revised beginning in 2002-03 based on sources in China who have revised estimates for Xinjiang using rail shipment data. Production is also raised for India and Brazil, but is lowered for Zimbabwe. World consumption is reduced about 500,000 bales due to decreases for Turkey, Russia, the United States and others. A reduction of nearly 700,000 bales in world imports reflects decreases for China, Turkey, Russia, and others. World 2007-08 ending stocks are raised 1.9 million bales, with the largest increases in China, the United States, and India.

The 2008-09 U.S. cotton projections include sharply lower production and ending stocks compared with 2007-08. Production is projected at 14.5 million bales, down 25% from 2007-08, based on planted area in the Prospective Plantings, combined with historical average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use also is reduced 300,000 bales from 2007-08 to 4.3 million bales, but exports are raised slightly to 14.5 million. Ending stocks are projected at 5.6 million bales, a 43% reduction from the beginning level and 30% of total use.

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