U.S. Meat Supply Should Slip in 2009

WASHINGTON - May 9/08 - SNS -- Total U.S. meat production in 2009 is projected to decline about 1% while this year's output was raised as higher expected beef production more than offsets lower pork and broiler forecasts, according to the latest supply and demand forecasts from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Beef production in 2009 declines on tighter supplies of cattle. Cow inventories declined in 2007 and with relatively high cow slaughter expected in 2008, cattle inventories will be smaller and result in fewer cattle marketings during 2009. Marketable supplies of cattle may be further reduced if producers begin retaining calves from this year's calf crop for addition to the breeding herd to rebuild herds.

Pork production is expected to decline as producers reduce sows farrowing later this year and into next year in response to poor returns. Additionally, hog imports are expected to be lower as Canadian producers reduce inventories.

Broiler production in 2009 will be slightly higher as production declines in late 2008 and early 2009 due to high feed costs, but then rebounds later in the year. Turkey production is forecast slightly lower, reversing several years of strong expansion. Egg production is forecast about unchanged in 2009, although output is expected to decline during the first half of the year.

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