World Coarse Grain Output Still Rising

WASHINGTON - May 9/08 - SNS -- Global coarse grains production for 2008-09 is projected at 1.1 billion metric tons (MT), up slightly from the current year record, despite the year-to-year decline in U.S. corn output, according to the latest supply and demand forecasts from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Foreign coarse-grain production is expected to increase 4% from 2007-08. World coarse grain output reflects year-to-year increases in projected corn production in Argentina, Brazil, China, EU-27, and FSU-12. World coarse grain output is also boosted by a recovery in barley production in Australia, EU-27, and FSU-12. Global coarse grain imports and exports are projected to decline in 2008-09 mostly reflecting lower EU-27 corn and sorghum imports and lower U.S. corn exports.

Global coarse grain feeding is projected lower with declines in U.S. corn feeding more than offsetting the increase in foreign corn feeding. World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to fall 6% as declines in U.S. corn ending stocks more than offset increases elsewhere. At the projected 99.0 million MT, 2008-09 global corn ending stocks are expected to hit a 25-year low.

The 2008-09 U.S. feed grains outlook is for lower production, strong domestic demand, and lower ending stocks. The 2008-09 corn crop is projected at 12.1 billion bushels, down 7% from the record 2007-08 crop. Planted area is from producer intentions reported in Prospective Plantings. Harvested area is based on historical abandonment and derived demand for silage.

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