Record World Wheat Harvest Likely

WASHINGTON - May 9/08 - SNS -- Global wheat production for 2008-09 is projected at a record 656 million metric tons (MT), up 8% from 2007-08, and up 5% from the previous record in 2004-05, according to the latest supply and demand forecasts from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Higher production is projected for most of the world's major exporting countries including Australia, Canada, EU-27, Russia, and Ukraine. Strong world prices and favorable weather in most of EU-27 and FSU-12 raised production for 2008. Production is also projected higher in Brazil, China, and India. Partly offsetting are reductions for Argentina and Kazahkstan. The only significant weather problems for winter wheat remain in drought-stricken Middle East and North Africa countries.

World wheat imports, exports, and consumption are projected higher for 2008-09. Imports are generally projected higher throughout the world with EU-27 the major exception. Imports are expected to fall sharply for EU-27 as wheat production rebounds from weather-reduced crops in the 2 previous years. EU-27 exports and wheat feeding are expected to rise sharply. World wheat ending stocks are projected at 124 million MT, up 13% from the current year's projection.

The 2008-09 U.S. wheat outlook is for higher production, lower exports, and increased domestic use. Total production is projected at 2.4 billion bushels, up 16% from 2007-08. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is up 17% as area and yield are higher than last year. Spring wheat production is expected higher with seeded area up 10% in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 614 million bushels, up 12% from 2007-08, based on 10-year harvested-to- planted ratios and trend yields. Total wheat supplies are projected up only 4% because of historically low carryin.

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