Tentative Hike in 2008-09 Rice Supply

WASHINGTON - May 9/08 - SNS -- Global 2008-09 rice production is projected at a record 432 million metric tons (MT), up 5 million from 2007-08, according to the latest supply and demand forecasts from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board.

World disappearance (consumption and residual) is projected at a record 428 million MT, up 3.6 million MT. Large crops are projected for most of Asia assuming normal weather.

Burma's 2008-09 rice crop is projected at 10 million MT, 7% below revised 2007-08. Cyclone Nargis made landfall in Burma on May 2 hitting the major Irrawaddy rice growing region, which accounts for an estimated one third of annual rice production. The storm likely damaged recently harvested rice (dry season crop), although much of the crop was probably already harvested. The conditions are delaying planting of the main rainy season crop in this important rice growing region.

Burmese farmers were completing the dry season harvest and in the early stages of planting the main season crop (normally harvested in December/January) when the storm hit. Seed availability for planting the rainy season crop may have been affected. Also, salt intrusion into the rice paddies may lower yield potential and prevent plantings in some areas altogether. Information on the storm's impact is limited, therefore, USDA's supply and use projections for Burma are very tentative. USDA is monitoring the situation and will reassess prior to the June 10 WASDE report.

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