Record Rice Crop Expected

ROME - May 12/08 - SNS -- International rice production will likely reach record levels this year, but prices will remain strong until harvest selling pressure develops during the last half of the year, believes FAO rice expert Concepcion Calpe.

World paddy production is expected to rise 2.8% to 666 million metric tons (MT). Production growth could even be higher if recent appeals and incentives to grow more rice lead to a larger expansion of plantings, according to the Rice Market Monitor. "But the cyclone disaster in Myanmar could well worsen our forecast," she added.

The destruction of Myanmar's food basket may sharply decrease national rice production and impair access to food, according to first FAO estimates. The cyclone damage could worsen the current global rice production outlook. The cyclone struck when paddy farmers were harvesting their dry season crop accounting for 20% of annual production. Entire rice-growing areas are flooded and many roads and bridges are impassable. Several rice warehouses and stocks were destroyed. Rice prices in Rangoon have already surged by nearly 50%.

Myanmar may need to turn to neighboring countries, such as Thailand and Viet Nam for rice imports. This could lead to further pressure on world prices.

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