USDA Boosts Winter Wheat Estimate

WASHINGTON - Jul 10/09 - SNS -- U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.52 billion bushels, up 2% from the June 1 forecast but down 18% from 2008, according to the USDA's latest crop report.

Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.8 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and 3.4 bushels below last year. Expected grain area totals 34.8 million acres, down 12% from last year but unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2009. Harvest in the 18 major producing States was 40% complete by June 28. This was 4 percentage points ahead of last year but 6 points behind the 5-year average.

Harvest progress was behind normal in all Hard Red Winter States except Oklahoma. Hot temperatures during the third week of June in Kansas allowed harvest to increase to 47% complete, compared with only 5% the previous week. Thunderstorms in Colorado have delayed harvest. Crop development in Nebraska was running about one week behind normal. Crop development in Montana was ahead of last year but still behind the 5-year average.

Yield forecasts are lower than the previous month in most States in the Soft Red Winter growing area. As of June 28, harvest progress in Illinois was 46% complete, 21 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

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