Linn Group Morning Corn Comment

CHICAGO - Nov 10/09 - SNS -- Following is the morning corn futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.

The corn market moved higher on Monday as the US$ made new lows and the Dow
made new highs.  The rally yesterday seemed to be a US$ driven rally and had
nothing to do with the fundamentals on the corn.  The December contract
closed up 19 cents near the highs of the day as harvest continues and we are
hearing about mostly good to very good yields across the Midwest.  The US$
seemed to be the catalyst for the rally in the commodity markets today and
that also seemed to help the stock market move into new highs.  Hedgers are
having a hard time right now as the fundamentals are telling us the grain
markets should be going lower with weaker demand and big crops coming, but
the futures continue to rally chasing a lot of guys out of their hedges.
The key today will be the USDA report that will be released this morning.
The crop progress report showed corn at 37% harvested which is still far
behind the 5yr average, but 12% higher than last week and to the higher end
of expectations.  The volume was big at 311,000 and funds were buyers of
about 10,000 contracts.

Overnight, corn closed down about 3 cents in front of the USDA report but it
had recovered off the lows made early in the night session and was actually
trading higher up until the end of the session.  The USDA report this
morning will be looked at as friendly to the corn market with lower yields
and lower production.  The USDA reduced the yield.  The current yield
estimate is 162.9 vs. October estimate of 164.2 and the carry out was
reduced as well.  At first look, the corn numbers are bullish for prices,
but with the US$ led rally yesterday, it may be hard for corn to rally off
the report.  The soybean numbers were considered bearish and could pull corn
lower if it sells off aggressively.  It could be an interesting day today as
we have a slightly bullish report and we have new money coming into the
grain markets, so that should support corn.  The key today will be how we
close, not how we open, so a higher close in corn today will go a long way
to making it easier for corn to continue the up trend.  We could be in a
wide trading range for corn, so be careful buying rally's and selling
breaks.

Globex Overnight

Contract            Last      Net Change       High      Low      Volume

ZCZ9                 383^0    -3^0                  386^0    379^2    5935

ZCH10              397^4    -2^6                  399^6    393^4    1649

ZCK10              408^0    -2^2                  409^2    403^6    371

ZCN10              416^2    -2^6                  418^0    412^4    132

Post Report Opening Calls:  2-4 higher

Report Headlines

**US Nov Corn 09/10 Crop Prod: 12.921 bln bu.; expected 12.99 bln bu.; Oct
13.018

**US Nov Corn 09/10 Crop Yield: 162.9 bu/ac; expected 163.6 bu/ac; Oct 164.2

**US Nov Corn 09/10 Carryout:  1.625 bln bu.; est. 1.65 ; Oct Rpt 1.672

**US Nov Soybean 09/10 Crop Prod: 3.319 bln bu.; expected 3.27 bln bu.; Oct
3.250

**US Nov Soybean 09/10 Crop Yield: 43.3 bu/ac; expected 42.6 bu/ac; Oct 42.4

**World 09/10 Corn Carryout: 132.4 mmt; Oct Rpt 136.3

**Nov Argentina 09/10 Corn Output: 14.0 mmt; Oct rpt 14.0

**Nov S Africa 09/10 Corn Output:  11.5 mmt; Oct rpt 10.5

**Nov China 09/10 Corn Output:  155.0 mmt; Oct rpt 155.0

Top News

-- An Environmental Protection Administrator told Reuters on Monday that the
EPA may not meet the December 1 deadline on the decision to approve an
industry proposal that would raise the ethanol volume from 10 up to 15
percent in gasoline.

-- Sec-Gen of OPEC suggested India & China would lead the pack in rebounding
world oil demand growth in 2010.  He expects demand to pick up by 700,000
bpd next year

-- There were indications in the market today that Argentina could join
Brazil with a 5 pct mandate on biodiesel blend effective in January.

-- Uncertainty in the biofuel market will have rapeseed growers in Germany
likely planting -0.4% less of the oilseed in 2010, acc. to oilseed industry
group.

-- Latest weekly USDA data shows Corn Mature at 97% compared to last week's
94%.  The long term average for the week is 100%.

-- Latest weekly USDA data shows Corn Harvest at 37% complete, last week it
was 25% complete.  Year ago at this time it was 69% complete.  The 5 yr avg
is 82%.

-- Monday's USDA Weekly Corn Inspections: 26.852 mln bu ; expected 28.5 mln
bu

-- Pending Tender: 45,000 mt of EU Corn was tender for by Israeli group on
Tuesday, bids must be submitted by Nov 5th, they're also seeking 32,000 mt
of US Corn in a separate tender also on Thursday Nov 5th

-- Pending Tender: 10,000 mt of European Barley was tender for by Israeli
group on Tuesday, bids must be submitted by Nov 5th

-- Pending Tender: 10,000 mt of Feed Barley is being sought in Nov 4th
tender by Oman, acc. to EU merchandisers.  Delivery was expected Nov 20-Dec
5.

-- Pending Tender: Turkey's state run grainary will hold a sales tender for
up to 100,000 mt of feed Barley on November 12th

-- Pending Tender: 23,000 mt of US Corn is being sought in a Thursday tender
by sugar group in Taiwan for shipment during December, acc. to traders

-- Dalian May corn futures were 7 yuan better at 1,740 yuan/mt.($1 = 6.83
yuan)

-- Liffe Jan corn futures were unchanged at 134.75 euros/mt.

-- Globex Corn Vol: 265,138; Pit Vol.: 38,872; Open Interest change: +
13,224

-- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Above Normal Temps.

-- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.29 at $79.72; Gold & Silver: +2.2 at
$1103.6 & -0.085 at $17.395; US $ +0.110 at $75.245

Cash Markets

-- CIF Corn up 1, off 1.   Nov. +50 to +??, Dec. +54 to +??, Jan. +44 to
+47, Feb. +44 to +47 ,Mar. +44 to +47, April +40 to +43, May +40 to +43,
June +41 to +44, July +41 to +44

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for
all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
trading results. Trading commentary and analysis is based on information
taken from trade and statistical services, news services, and other sources
which we believe to be reliable. We do NOT warrant that such information is
accurate or complete, and it should NOT be relied upon as such. Our policy
is to publish market research that is objective, clear, fair, and not
misleading. Trading commentary and analysis reflects our good faith judgment
at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no
assurance that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All
trading decisions will be made on a strictly unsolicited basis by the
account holder.



If you have any questions or want to discuss specific trade recommendations,
contact me directly.

Jim Riley
Linn Group
877-787-6278
jriley@linngroup.com
www.linngroup.com/

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express of an implied promise, guarantee or implication by of from the Linn Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its management.

PageGen v1.0ef